Market update: Why Bitcoin remains surprisingly stable amid the Middle East conflict The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense. Nevertheless, on 10 March 2026, Bitcoin is once again trading well above the USD 70,000 mark. The price is currently around USD 71,000, after hovering around USD 65,000 a week ago. The fact that Bitcoin was able to quickly return to this zone despite the recent escalation is a sign of relative strength. However, it would be premature to declare the all-clear. Why the market did not collapse more sharplyPart of the explanation lies in the broader market environment. After statements from Washington were interpreted as a possible signal for a more rapid de-escalation, risk assets recovered and Bitcoin jumped back above USD 70,000. At the same time, the latest market data shows initial signs of stabilisation: Glassnode reports slightly improved momentum and continued solid ETF demand. This is consistent with the fact that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of USD 167.1 million on 9 March. This is not yet a breakthrough, but it shows that buyers are entering the market even at lower levels. There has also been intense discussion in the market recently about Jane Street. Two things in particular are reliable: the Indian regulator SEBI imposed an interim measure against the company in July 2025 and later relaxed it only under ongoing supervision. In addition, since the end of February 2026, the liquidator of Terraform Labs has been accusing Jane Street of alleged insider trading in connection with the Terra Luna collapse in 2022. In our view, however, this is more of a side issue for the recent stabilisation of Bitcoin. The bigger driver remains the question of whether risk appetite and liquidity will return to the market. What the conflict in Iran reveals about cryptoIt is interesting to take a look directly at Iran. Chainalysis recorded outflows of around USD 10.3 million from Iranian exchanges between 28 February and 2 March following the air strikes. This fits with a pattern that Chainalysis had already described for the recent protests: in periods of political uncertainty, transfers from exchanges to personal wallets, i.e. to self-custody, increase. TRM Labs shows the other side of the coin: due to massive internet outages, transaction volume plummeted by around 80 per cent between 27 February and 1 March. The Iranian crypto market was under stress, but it did not collapse. This is precisely the important point: in crises, Bitcoin and crypto not only function as objects of speculation, but can also serve as instruments for ownership, mobility and self-custody. Why we are not yet seeing a clear trend reversalTechnically and on-chain, the situation remains fragile. Currently, only around 59 per cent of the Bitcoin supply is in profit. Conversely, this means that just under 40 per cent of the coins in circulation are in loss. Although the picture has improved slightly, there is still a lack of broad conviction. This is also reflected in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which currently stands at only 8 and is thus in the "Extreme Fear" range.Source: https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/pctsupplyinprofit_all/pctsupplyinprofit_all_light.htmlThe zone around USD 70,000 will therefore remain crucial for the coming weeks. Glassnode recently described the range from around USD 68,500 to USD 71,500 as a relevant resistance and distribution zone, while earlier analyses classified the range from USD 60,000 to USD 69,000 as a key demand zone. The fact that Bitcoin is trading just above this level again today is constructive. However, in our view, a robust new uptrend would only be convincing if the price settles above this zone and ETF inflows and spot demand continue. ConclusionOur conclusion is therefore twofold: Bitcoin has shown relative strength in a difficult geopolitical environment. That is positive. At the same time, the market picture remains characterised by stabilisation rather than genuine euphoria. Investors should view this phase less as the starting signal for the next bull market and more as a transitional phase in which it will become clear whether relative strength will translate into genuine demand again. Important legal informationThis publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation. It is not a sales prospectus and does not constitute a request, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell investment instruments or investment services, or to engage in any other transaction. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. Investors are therefore advised to obtain independent legal or tax advice concerning the suitability of such investments, since their tax treatment depends on the personal circumstances of the investor in question and is subject to change at any time. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG holds a Swiss banking licence issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). This publication is expressly not intended for persons domiciled in Germany or so-called U.S. persons. Editorial deadline: 10 March 2026Maerki Baumann & Co. AGDreikönigstrasse 6, CH-8002 ZurichT +41 44 286 25 25, info@maerki-baumann.chwww.maerki-baumann.ch