Market Update: Why Bitcoin remains resilient amid macro pressures and ETF inflows Bitcoin is proving remarkably stable even in this market phase. This is particularly striking given that the latest macro data has not provided any real cause for relief. In the US, the Producer Price Index rose by 0.5 per cent month-on-month and 4 per cent year-on-year in March. In the eurozone, final inflation for March was revised upwards to 2.6 per cent. At the same time, US initial jobless claims remained low at 207,000. For the markets, this means that inflationary pressure has not disappeared, and central banks have little reason to ease policy significantly any time soon.Nevertheless, Bitcoin is holding up surprisingly well. The price is currently trading at around USD 76,029. But something else is even more important: demand for exchange-traded Bitcoin products remains intact. According to Glassnode, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows of around USD 1 billion since 14 April. This suggests that pullbacks are currently still being absorbed. Why macro data is so important for Bitcoin right nowThe market is currently trading Bitcoin less as an isolated crypto asset and more as a macro-sensitive risk asset. This is precisely why last week’s data was so relevant. Higher producer prices in the US, an upwardly revised inflation rate in the eurozone and, at the same time, a robust US labour market are not a combination that makes imminent interest rate cuts more likely. This is relevant for Bitcoin because an environment where interest rates remain high for an extended period ties up liquidity and can limit risk appetite.Why Bitcoin remains stable despite Iran and oil risksIt is therefore noteworthy not only that Bitcoin has not collapsed, but that it continues to hold above key support levels despite geopolitical tensions. Nor is there currently any sign of full-blown panic in the traditional markets. Associated Press News (AP) reported on 21 April that whilst Brent crude remained above USD 95 per barrel, movements on the stock markets were significantly more moderate than at the height of the recent escalation. It is precisely this environment that is crucial for Bitcoin: the nervousness is there, but so far it has not turned into widespread capitulation.Furthermore, whilst the oil market has settled down somewhat, the energy issue is by no means off the table. In its April report, the International Energy Agency IEA emphasises that the situation surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains the key factor for energy prices and the economy. As long as this pressure persists, so too does the risk that inflation fears could flare up again at any time. For Bitcoin, this means: robust, but by no means invulnerable.Chart: Bitcoin price trend | Source: btc-echo.de ETF inflows continue to provide support for the marketThe most important stabilising factor remains institutional demand. CoinShares reported inflows of USD 1.1 billion into digital asset products for the week ending 13 April, the highest figure since January. 95 per cent of these inflows came from the US. Bitcoin alone attracted USD 871 million. The market received a further boost from the news that Strategy had purchased a further 34,164 Bitcoin worth USD 2.54 billion, which further underscores the institutional demand for Bitcoin. This is a strong signal, as it demonstrates a continuous inflow of capital into the largest cryptocurrency, even when the macroeconomic environment is anything but relaxed.Chart: Net flows of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in million USD (April 2026) | Source: glassnodeIt is precisely this interplay that is currently key: on the one hand, interest rate and inflationary pressures persist; on the other, professional capital appears to be consistently capitalising on setbacks. As long as this demand remains intact, Bitcoin is likely to absorb geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds better than many smaller crypto assets. Earnings season and quality selection as the next testIn addition to inflation, interest rates and energy prices, the market is now also turning its attention more firmly to the start of the US earnings season. According to AP, around 10 per cent of S&P 500 companies have already reported their figures, and nearly nine out of ten beat earnings expectations. Should these trends be confirmed, this could further bolster general risk appetite. And Bitcoin usually benefits from this too.Within the crypto market, however, selection remains clear. Whilst data from CoinShares shows a recovery in risk appetite, around USD 20 million also flowed into short Bitcoin products. This means investors are taking a constructive stance but are remaining hedged. This fits the current market picture perfectly. Confidence is present, but euphoria is not yet. ConclusionBitcoin remains stable at present primarily because two forces are at play. On the one hand, inflation, interest rates and energy prices continue to create macroeconomic headwinds. On the other hand, institutional demand remains strong enough to cushion any setbacks. This is precisely what shapes the current picture: not a carefree bull market, but nor a widespread flight from the sector.The next significant impetus is therefore likely to come from external factors. The key question remains whether new inflation concerns, rising energy prices or unexpectedly strong macroeconomic data will push interest rate expectations higher once again. As long as this does not escalate and ETF inflows remain positive, Bitcoin has a good chance of maintaining its relative strength. Important legal informationThis publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation. It is not a sales prospectus and does not constitute a request, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell investment instruments or investment services, or to engage in any other transaction. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. Investors are therefore advised to obtain independent legal or tax advice concerning the suitability of such investments, since their tax treatment depends on the personal circumstances of the investor in question and is subject to change at any time. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG holds a Swiss banking licence issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). This publication is expressly not intended for persons domiciled in Germany or so-called U.S. persons. Editorial deadline: 21 April 2026Maerki Baumann & Co. AGDreikönigstrasse 6, CH-8002 ZurichT +41 44 286 25 25, info@maerki-baumann.chwww.maerki-baumann.ch