Market Update: Why Bitcoin has not yet broken out of consolidation despite the recovery In our view, the crypto market remains in a consolidation phase. Admittedly, the Bitcoin price has recovered noticeably over the past few weeks. It is noteworthy that this recovery has taken place despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. This is precisely why the key question now arises: Is Bitcoin already in the process of transitioning from consolidation to sustained bullish momentum?From our perspective, this question cannot yet be answered definitively. This is because, despite the recent recovery, Bitcoin has not yet sustainably broken through several key resistance levels. Strong counter-movements are not unusual, particularly during bear markets. Historically, there have been repeated recoveries of up to 30 per cent without this automatically leading to a new uptrend.On the downside, the low from early February of just under $60,000 is likely to serve as a relevant support level for the time being. On the upside, the range between $80,000 and $85,000 remains crucial. Only when Bitcoin sustainably breaks through this zone can we speak of a bullish confirmation. Why Bitcoin is in a key zone right nowThe resistance zone around $80,000 to $85,000 is a tough one. It combines several technically and on-chain relevant price levels. These include the average cost basis for short-term holders at around $78,600, the average entry point for all active investors at around $78,100, and the average cost basis for all Bitcoin ETF holders at around $82,100.Added to this is the 200-day moving average at around $83,300, as well as the average production cost for mining a Bitcoin, which also stands at around $81,600. This trading range is therefore particularly relevant from a technical analysis perspective as well. Furthermore, there is a significant supply surplus in this zone from market participants who bought at higher prices and could potentially sell again in the event of a recovery.For a confirmed bullish uptrend to be identified once again, Bitcoin would need to break through these price thresholds on a sustained basis. A short-term rise alone is not sufficient for this. The decisive factor is whether the market generates sufficient demand to absorb this supply zone.Chart: Relevant Bitcoin price levels and resistance zones | Source: Checkonchain.comWhy Bitcoin bulls will likely need several attemptsHistorically, Bitcoin bulls have often needed several attempts to break through comparable resistance zones sustainably. This is precisely what the current market structure suggests. The aforementioned trading range is not only psychologically significant but also encompasses several thresholds at which different investor groups return to profit or at least approach their entry price.This could create selling pressure in the short term. Investors who bought at higher prices during the previous uptrend might use a recovery to reduce their positions. At the same time, new buyers are watching very closely to see whether Bitcoin shows enough strength to overcome this range.The options market is also not yet giving a clear all-clear. On Deribit, one of the most important derivatives exchanges for Bitcoin options, options traders remain largely bearish for June. This suggests that professional market participants do not yet anticipate a clear breakout to the upside in the short term.What makes the on-chain data particularly interesting right nowIt is particularly interesting at present to look at the average cost basis of various investor groups. Historically, it has often been an important signal when Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the average cost basis of short-term holders as well as the average entry threshold of all active investors.Currently, these two levels stand at around $78,600 and $78,100 respectively. In previous market phases, a sustained break above these thresholds often indicated that the final downward move for Bitcoin was imminent or had already begun. This is precisely why the current range is so crucial.In recent days, Bitcoin has once again climbed to these levels. Should the market manage to defend these thresholds sustainably, this would be an important signal for a sustained upward trend. If, on the other hand, Bitcoin fails again in this range, this would suggest a continuation of the consolidation. ConclusionBitcoin has recovered over the past few weeks and is showing a degree of resilience despite geopolitical uncertainties. Nevertheless, in our view, it is too early to speak of a confirmed new upward trend.The key question remains whether demand is strong enough to absorb the excess supply in this zone. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin is currently struggling with the relevant thresholds. At the same time, the options market and chart patterns continue to urge caution.The current market picture can therefore be summarised as follows: the recovery is real, but the breakout has not yet been confirmed. Only a sustained break above the key resistance zone would clearly shift the momentum in favour of the Bitcoin bulls. Important legal informationThis publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation. It is not a sales prospectus and does not constitute a request, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell investment instruments or investment services, or to engage in any other transaction. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. Investors are therefore advised to obtain independent legal or tax advice concerning the suitability of such investments, since their tax treatment depends on the personal circumstances of the investor in question and is subject to change at any time. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG holds a Swiss banking licence issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). This publication is expressly not intended for persons domiciled in Germany or so-called U.S. persons. Editorial deadline: 5 May 2026Maerki Baumann & Co. AGDreikönigstrasse 6, CH-8002 ZurichT +41 44 286 25 25, info@maerki-baumann.chwww.maerki-baumann.ch