Market Update: Why Bitcoin continues to show strength amid the Middle East conflict Bitcoin is proving surprisingly resilient even in the current phase of geopolitical uncertainty. On 24 March 2026, the price stood at around USD 70,900, remaining close to the USD 71,000 mark. This is remarkable because many market participants had expected significantly stronger selling pressure in the event of further escalation in the Middle East. It is certainly too early to sound the all-clear. However, the expected capitulation has so far failed to materialise. Why the market has not yet given way more significantlyPart of the stability can be explained by the market environment. Recent signs of a possible de-escalation between the US and Iran provided short-term relief on the financial markets. Risk assets reacted positively, oil corrected sharply downwards and Bitcoin jumped back above the USD 70,000 mark. This explains part of the recovery, but not the whole story.The more important point is another: the market appears resilient at lower levels. Following significant outflows in February, the picture brightened again in March. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of around USD 1.13 billion between 3 and 23 March. This suggests that capital continues to flow into the market during pullbacks. It is precisely this structural demand that may help explain why Bitcoin is currently absorbing geopolitical tensions better than many had expected.Chart: Net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs | Source: Farside Investors Selling pressure has eased significantlyIt is also striking that selling pressure has eased significantly recently. In aggregate, only around USD 333 million worth of Bitcoin is currently being sold per day, after this figure had at times stood at around USD 2 billion in November. At that time, it was primarily long-term holders who were taking profits. Currently, this group is significantly more cautious, which further stabilises the market.Chart: Realised Bitcoin profits in US dollars | Source: Checkonchain Demand is not coming solely from StrategyStrategy also remains particularly prominent on the demand side. The company initially reported a holding of 720,737 Bitcoin as of 2 March, increasing this to 738,731 by 8 March, to 761,068 by 16 March, and now to 762,099 Bitcoin as of 23 March. In March alone, these reported purchases thus total almost 45,000 Bitcoin. This is a significant driver of demand and shows that Strategy is consistently pursuing its treasury strategy despite increased volatility.Chart: Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings and purchase history | Source: BitboHowever, demand now extends beyond a single company. 13F filings and market reports show that larger institutional investors also remain active. These include, for example, Mubadala from Abu Dhabi and Harvard Management Company, which holds positions in the BlackRock product IBIT. At the same time, the latest flow data from CoinShares shows that Ethereum and Solana have also seen inflows again. This suggests that institutional interest in digital assets remains intact overall, even if widespread retail euphoria has yet to materialise.What else is on the crypto world’s mind right nowAlongside the market itself, regulation is once again coming into sharper focus. In the US, the SEC published a new interpretation on 17 March that clarifies how existing securities law should be applied to crypto-assets. At the same time, the SEC and CFTC (US derivatives regulator) are emphasising their coordinated cooperation. This is a positive signal because it provides greater clarity, at least at the regulatory level.However, the broader market structure legislation remains the real sticking point. The Clarity Act remains deadlocked in the Senate. The main point of contention is how stablecoin yields and ‘stablecoin-related’ reward models should be treated. Banks, in particular, see this as direct competition to deposits and payment transactions. Although there have recently been signs of progress towards a compromise, a clearly defined political timeline is still lacking. This is relevant for the crypto market because only such a legal framework would permanently sharpen the distinction between digital commodities and traditional securities. ConclusionBitcoin remains surprisingly stable in a tense geopolitical environment because the market is currently driven by two forces: first, sustained structural demand, and second, the fact that many weak hands have already been forced out of the market. Strategy remains a key buyer, but it is by no means the only one. ETF inflows and institutional positioning show that capital continues to flow into the sector. The next major test is likely to come less from the Middle East than from Washington: it is there that it will be decided whether the recent regulatory progress will be followed by genuine legal clarity. Important legal informationThis publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation. It is not a sales prospectus and does not constitute a request, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell investment instruments or investment services, or to engage in any other transaction. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. Investors are therefore advised to obtain independent legal or tax advice concerning the suitability of such investments, since their tax treatment depends on the personal circumstances of the investor in question and is subject to change at any time. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG holds a Swiss banking licence issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). This publication is expressly not intended for persons domiciled in Germany or so-called U.S. persons. Editorial deadline: 24 March 2026Maerki Baumann & Co. AGDreikönigstrasse 6, CH-8002 ZurichT +41 44 286 25 25, info@maerki-baumann.chwww.maerki-baumann.ch