Market Update: Bitcoin is recovering, but the breakout is not yet confirmed Bitcoin is back in positive territory. Following its recent stabilisation, the cryptocurrency was trading around USD 62,300 at the editorial deadline. The market has recovered from its lows, but from a technical perspective this does not yet amount to a confirmed breakout.The key question is whether Bitcoin can break through its near-term resistance zones on a sustained basis. That would require more than technical strength alone. A more supportive liquidity backdrop would also be needed, including steadier ETF inflows, less pressure from the US dollar and a more constructive tone across risk assets. A cautious recovery, not a confirmed breakoutThe latest move is constructive, but it should not be overstated. Bitcoin has stabilised and briefly moved back towards USD 64,000. At the same time, the market remains in an interim phase in which neither buyers nor sellers have gained clear control.For a genuine breakout, Bitcoin would need to move decisively beyond its recent highs and confirm that move with follow-through buying. Until that happens, the current recovery is better understood as an improvement in short-term market sentiment rather than a convincing trend reversal.Chart: Bitcoin price trend since 7 January 2026 | Source: CheckonchainETF flows provide some relief, but not yet a clear signalDemand via US spot Bitcoin ETFs remains an important driver. Demand via US spot Bitcoin ETFs remains an important driver. After several days of notable outflows, the market showed positive daily readings again: on 2 July, net inflows stood at around 197 million US dollars; on 6 July, they stood at just under 266 million US dollars.This points to some relief, but not yet to a broad return of institutional demand. For a sustained breakout, these inflows would need to stabilise over several trading days rather than appear only as a short-term rebound.Chart: Daily outflows and inflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs since the end of June 2026 | Source: GlassnodeWhy tech and AI stocks still matter for cryptoThe crypto market remains sensitive to the performance of large US technology and AI-related stocks. The reason is primarily liquidity. Bitcoin, growth equities and AI names all sit within the broader universe of risk assets, which benefit when investors are prepared to take more risk.In recent months, a large amount of capital has flowed into AI-linked technology and semiconductor stocks. For crypto, this is ambiguous. On the one hand, it shows that risk appetite exists. On the other hand, the AI sector is absorbing liquidity that could also have flowed into digital assets.That is why the Nasdaq remains an important sentiment indicator. If momentum in large AI and technology stocks begins to fade, capital could rotate back into other risk assets. Crypto assets could benefit from this, provided the broader market environment does not turn more defensive at the same time.The US dollar remains the key macro variableThe US dollar is currently a key variable for Bitcoin. A stronger dollar often increases pressure on crypto-assets, as capital tends to move towards safer and interest-bearing assets. Conversely, a weaker dollar can relieve pressure on Bitcoin, particularly if interest-rate expectations are also falling.After Kevin Warsh’s first monetary-policy appearance as Fed Chair, the market interpreted the message as relatively restrictive. The Fed emphasised its focus on price stability, while rate cuts do not appear guaranteed. According to Barron’s, markets at times priced in more scope for rate increases following Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chairman.For Bitcoin, this means that a falling dollar would be an important tailwind. If the dollar continues to rise, however, the recovery in the crypto market could quickly come under renewed pressure. ConclusionBitcoin has clearly recovered, but the market is not yet in a confirmed breakout. The green numbers are constructive, but they are not enough on their own to suggest that the next major rally has already started.For bullish confirmation, Bitcoin would need to break through important resistance zones on a sustained basis and be supported by steadier ETF inflows. On the other side, a stronger US dollar remains the main risk. As long as these signals remain mixed, the current move is best described as a cautious recovery within an interim phase. 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