Market Update: Bitcoin between a strong US Dollar, AI Hype and concerns around Strategy Bitcoin remains under pressure, while part of the market is focused on expected IPOs and valuations around AI companies. In our view, however, this explanation alone falls short. The key factor remains the strength of the US dollar. It is weighing on the crypto market and is being indirectly supported by the AI hype. Why is Bitcoin still weak despite AI euphoria?Bitcoin remains under pressure. In our view, this is not primarily because investors are directly selling Bitcoin in favour of AI stocks. The more important factor is the US dollar. Over the past few weeks, the dollar has strengthened, which tends to be a headwind for Bitcoin.The AI hype still plays a role. The anticipated major US IPOs involving companies such as SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, as well as the capital market activities of the hyperscalers, are driving up demand for the US dollar. Investors who want exposure to these US companies and the AI revolution need to allocate capital in US dollars. This can create additional dollar strength.The widespread view that Bitcoin is under pressure because of upcoming AI and technology IPOs therefore contains an indirect element of truth. More precisely, however, AI euphoria strengthens demand for US dollars and ties up risk capital. The stronger dollar therefore remains the more important headwind.Chart: Bitcoin compared with the US Dollar Index DXY | Source: MacroMicroWhat is behind the nervousness around Strategy?Additional unease has recently come from the Strategy. The US company has been known for years for its large Bitcoin purchases and is regarded as the most important publicly listed corporate holder of Bitcoin.At the end of May, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin at an average price of USD 77,135. The sale was very small relative to its total holdings. Nevertheless, the market viewed it as a symbolically important signal, as Strategy had not reported a Bitcoin sale since December 2022. Only a few days later, Strategy was already back as a buyer. Between 1 and 7 June, the company purchased a further 3,137 Bitcoin for around USD 101 million at an average price of USD 65,332. This lifted its total Bitcoin holdings to 846,842 Bitcoin.Some market observers remain critical of the capital structure. Strategy reports a US dollar reserve of around USD 1.1 billion. At the same time, its annualised dividend obligations on preferred stock are estimated at around USD 1.7 billion. If Bitcoin remains in a weak market environment for longer, the question remains how Strategy will finance this gap. Further capital raises through common shares or preferred stock are possible. However, the risk of occasional further Bitcoin sales is therefore not off the table.Chart: Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings since 2020 | Source: BitboHow long could the bear market last?By historical standards, Bitcoin is likely to be entering the later stages of the bear market at present. Within the familiar four-year cycle, a cyclical bottom in November or December of this year would be plausible. There is no guarantee of this, however. The Cycle theory has provided guidance in the past. However, it is not a law of nature and therefore does not have to repeat itself in exactly the same way every time.If Bitcoin sees lower prices again in the coming weeks, the area between USD 49,000 and USD 54,000 will come into particular focus from an on-chain perspective. Several on-chain levels sit within this zone and have been comparable with bottoming phases in previous cycles.Chart: Key on-chain levels that could signal a bottom | Source: CheckonchainThis area would therefore represent an important support level. The key factor here would be whether the selling pressure eases and the Bitcoin price can stabilise in this range. A move back into this zone would not automatically imply a renewed escalation, but it would confirm that Bitcoin remains in a challenging market phase. Conclusion: Bitcoin is waiting for dollar reliefBitcoin remains in a bear market trend. AI euphoria is attracting attention and capital, but the most important headwind remains the stronger US dollar. As long as dollar strength, elevated US interest rates and cautious risk appetite dominate, Bitcoin lacks a clear relief signal.Strategy is also creating uncertainty. The recent sale was small, but symbolically relevant. The subsequent purchases show that the US company is still committed to its Bitcoin strategy. However, its dividend obligations and lower cash reserves remain a point the market will continue to watch.For Bitcoin, the area between USD 49,000 and USD 54,000 remains central on the downside. Stabilisation there would be consistent with a late phase of the bear market. A clear break below it, by contrast, would further cloud the picture. Important legal informationThis publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation. It is not a sales prospectus and does not constitute a request, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell investment instruments or investment services, or to engage in any other transaction. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. Investors are therefore advised to obtain independent legal or tax advice concerning the suitability of such investments, since their tax treatment depends on the personal circumstances of the investor in question and is subject to change at any time. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG holds a Swiss banking licence issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). This publication is expressly not intended for persons domiciled in Germany or so-called U.S. persons. Editorial deadline: 17 June 2026Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd.Dreikönigstrasse 6, CH-8002 ZurichT +41 44 286 25 25, info@maerki-baumann.chmaerki-baumann.ch | archip.ch