Hopes for interest rate cut dashed

At the beginning of January, the market priced in an 85 percent probability that the US Federal Reserve would leave its key interest rates unchanged at its January meeting. However, there were voices within the crypto community that did not share this assessment and hoped for an increasing probability of an interest rate cut. This expectation has not been confirmed in recent weeks. On the contrary, the market is now pricing in a probability of around 95 percent that there will be no interest rate cut in January.

Headwinds at the start of the year

This development can be seen as a key reason why Bitcoin was unable to successfully complete its latest attempt to recapture the USD 100,000 mark. Instead, the price rebounded off the much-noticed average cost price of short-term holders. This behaviour suggests that the market is not yet convinced that a sustained trend reversal has already begun.

_{The "realised profit by profit margin" indicator shows that the profit share of the group with a margin of 0 to 20% has risen significantly. This suggests more activity from breakeven sellers taking small profits. Source: glassnode}

With this headwind, the bears are also making their voices heard more clearly again. They point to a so-called supply air pocket in the range between 70,000 and 80,000 US dollars – a price zone in which historically there has been comparatively little trading volume. Such zones are often "filled" in the Bitcoin market before a sustained upward trend can continue. Whether this will happen remains to be seen, but the scenario is increasingly being discussed by market participants.

Positive signals beneath the surface

At the same time, there are constructive developments beneath the surface. For Bitcoin investors, it is worth focusing less on short-term price movements and more on the relationship between demand and marginal supply. Put simply, the question is whether current demand is sufficient to absorb the existing selling pressure.

To gain an assessment of future demand and potential selling pressure, it is useful to look at the rates of change. On the demand side, two factors are currently particularly decisive: the dynamics of ETF inflows and the buying activity of the Bitcoin company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which, as a listed company, has been systematically building up Bitcoin as a treasury reserve for years.

_{Since 1 January 2026, ETF flows have been roughly balanced. After inflows of USD 1.4 billion last week, outflows were already recorded again in the following week. Source: checkonchain}

This is precisely where signs of a revival have recently become apparent again. Bitcoin ETFs purchased Bitcoin worth around USD 1.4 billion last week. Strategy was also significantly more active again, having already purchased more than 12,000 Bitcoin per week this year. By comparison, in late summer and autumn of last year, the company often accumulated less than 1,000 Bitcoin per week. This change may indicate early upward momentum, especially if this demand proves to be sustainable.

Selling pressure continues to ease

There are also increasing signs of easing on the supply side. The "Bitcoin Hodler Net Position Change" indicator has returned to positive territory since the beginning of the year and continues to rise. Currently, long-term holders are accumulating around 20,000 Bitcoin per day again – with a continuing upward trend.

It is noteworthy that the decline in selling pressure has actually accelerated in recent weeks. Even the short-term recovery at the beginning of January did little to change this. This is relevant insofar as, with the Bitcoin price at around 90,000 US dollars, a significant portion of the Bitcoins held are still mathematically underwater. The decisive factor will be whether investors who entered the market above the USD 100,000 mark will increasingly sell their positions in the event of another period of weakness, thereby increasing selling pressure once again.

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Editorial deadline: 26 January 2026

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