Market Update: Is Bitcoin’s bear market already over? In the previous ARCHIP Crypto Market Update, the unusually low level of Bitcoin volatility appeared unlikely to last. Since then, the price has risen from just under USD 62,000 to temporarily above USD 80,000. At the editorial deadline, Bitcoin is trading at around USD 77,000. The important question is therefore not the price surge alone, but which technically and on-chain relevant levels Bitcoin has reclaimed in the process.Several signals suggest that the bear market may be approaching its end. Definitive confirmation is still lacking, however. A major resistance zone, profit-taking and Bitcoin’s historically weak September seasonality are set against renewed institutional demand. Bitcoin reclaims key trend levelsBitcoin has moved back above several important thresholds during the latest rally. The price is once again above the 200-day moving average of around USD 69,500. It has also reclaimed the average cost basis of short-term holders, which stands at approximately USD 70,000. Many market participants who bought in recent months are therefore back in profit.Bitcoin has also broken above its 10-month moving average. Historically, the first recovery of this level after several months of a bear market has been a strong indication that the downturn was nearing its end. This does not guarantee a new bullish uptrend, but it increases the probability of a change in market regime.Chart: Bitcoin price with the 200-day moving average, 10-month moving average, short-term holder average cost basis and 50-week moving average. | Source: TradingView The decisive hurdle is near USD 81,000Bitcoin does not yet have a clear path higher. The 50-week moving average currently sits near USD 81,000 and has proved to be persistent resistance in previous market phases. The remaining bears are likely to defend this area again. Following the latest move above USD 81,000, Bitcoin fell back below USD 80,000.For a more robust bullish confirmation, Bitcoin would need to break through this zone on a sustained basis and subsequently establish it as support. Until that happens, another pullback remains possible.September seasonality is an additional consideration. Since Bitcoin’s inception, September has been its weakest month on average. Yet the pattern has not held in the past three years: September ended positively in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Seasonality therefore provides context, but is not a reliable signal on its own.Chart: Monthly Bitcoin returns since 2011. | Source: coinglass Profit-taking meets institutional demandOn-chain data also show that some investors who accumulated Bitcoin around USD 60,000 during the recent period of weakness used the rally to take profits. Such selling pressure is not unusual after a rapid advance. It does show, however, that Bitcoin must first work through these “hot money” sell-offs above the latest accumulation zone.At the same time, institutional buyers have returned to the market. Over the past two weeks, approximately USD 2.5 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, while a further USD 1.5 billion flowed into Ethereum ETFs. Notably, the Ethereum ETFs did not record net outflows on a single day during this period. This matters. If existing investors take profits while institutional capital offsets the resulting supply, the market can potentially remain stable despite the selling pressure beneath the surface.Chart: Weekly net flows into US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. | Source: coinglassThe four-year cycle faces a historic testIt would nevertheless be premature to declare the bear market definitively over. Investors are generally better served by thinking in probabilities rather than absolute scenarios. The probability that the bear market is approaching its end has clearly increased as Bitcoin has reclaimed the key levels.The next question is whether Bitcoin can break the much-discussed four-year cycle. If the latest uptrend remains intact over the coming 40 days and Bitcoin does not record a new low, the current cycle bottom would have formed in the third quarter for the first time, rather than in the fourth quarter as in previous cycles.The bears have not abandoned their case. Among other factors, they point to the US midterm elections on 3 November 2026 as a potential source of renewed volatility. In this scenario, a Democratic victory in Congress could provoke a negative short-term reaction in Bitcoin. This is a market scenario rather than a firm prediction.Chart: Comparison of Bitcoin bear-market cycles and the interval between each cycle high and low. | Source: Alphractal ConclusionThe latest rally is more than an ordinary countertrend move. Bitcoin has reclaimed its 200-day moving average, the average cost basis of short-term holders and the 10-month moving average. ETF inflows also suggest that institutional demand is once again providing a meaningful share of buying pressure.This is not yet sufficient to confirm a definitive trend reversal. The key question is whether Bitcoin can break through the 50-week moving average and therefore the resistance zone around USD 81,000 on a sustained basis.If the uptrend remains intact over the coming weeks and no new low is recorded, the end of the bear market would become more likely. Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle would also face a historic break. Important legal informationThis publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation. It is not a sales prospectus and does not constitute a request, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell investment instruments or investment services, or to engage in any other transaction. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. Investors are therefore advised to obtain independent legal or tax advice concerning the suitability of such investments, since their tax treatment depends on the personal circumstances of the investor in question and is subject to change at any time. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG holds a Swiss banking licence issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). This publication is expressly not intended for persons domiciled in Germany or so-called U.S. persons. Editorial deadline: 2 September 2026Maerki Baumann & Co. Ltd.Dreikönigstrasse 6, CH-8002 ZurichT +41 44 286 25 25, info@maerki-baumann.chmaerki-baumann.ch | archip.ch