1. Crypto macro: many promises, not much follow-through

The year 2025 began with bold announcements. “Strategic Bitcoin Reserves” (SBRs) dominated headlines, culminating in a U.S. executive order that formally established a national Bitcoin reserve. The idea was ambitious: the United States would accumulate bitcoin in budget-neutral ways.

Despite initial enthusiasm within the crypto community, no actual purchases have taken place. Nonetheless, by the end of 2025, the U.S. government remains one of the largest sovereign holders of bitcoin, holding roughly 328,000 BTC, acquired primarily through seizures and forfeitures.

Chart: Bitcoin holdings by the U.S. Government

_{^{Source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/usg}} 

Another idea that circulated early in the year was “BitBonds”. These instruments would resemble Treasury bonds, except that 10 percent of the funds raised would be used to purchase bitcoin for the strategic reserve. In May of 2025, the Mayor of New York City briefly championed the concept, although no issuance actually followed. The state of New Hampshire, however, moved ahead and became the first state to approve a municipal bond backed by bitcoin towards the end of 2025. 

While this step has attracted some attention, a small number of countries, including El Salvador and Bhutan, have already held Bitcoin as part of their national reserves for several years. Will more countries consider building strategic reserves in digital assets in 2026? From a game theory perspective, this would be plausible: if one country gains a perceived strategic advantage by holding digital assets, others may eventually feel compelled to respond. In practice, however, government decision-making is slow and often bound by lengthy approval processes. As a result, progress in this area may unfold more gradually than many initially expected.

2. Institutionalization is happening among companies

While government adoption has remained limited, corporate adoption accelerated significantly. It appears that companies have begun to grasp the strategic relevance of Bitcoin on a deeper level. In 2025, more than 100 digital asset treasury companies collectively raised USD 45 billion for bitcoin purchases. Their combined holdings grew from 450,000 BTC to more than 800,000 BTC within a single year.

Chart: Bitcoin holdings of digital asset treasury companies

_{^{Source: https://bitcoinquant.co/historical-purchases}} 

Together with spot Bitcoin ETFs and other funds, public companies now hold roughly 2.5 million BTC, or 12.8 percent of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. These institutional holdings increased by 35.5 percent in less than twelve months, which shows that the long-awaited institutionalization of this asset class is finally happening.

And this institutional momentum shows little sign of abating. From January 2026, Bank of America, with assets totaling  USD 4.6 trillion, will allow its wealth management advisors to recommend a 1% to 4% allocation to crypto assets. This effectively enables 16,000 advisors to introduce Bitcoin exposure to a large global client base in the wealth management segment.

At the same time, even long-time skeptics, like Vanguard have caved in. In a clear case of “better late than never”, the second-largest investment manager now allows clients to buy and sell crypto ETFs on its brokerage platform.

3. Stablecoins: crypto’s prime use case

While the crypto adoption among institutional investors is remarkable, the adoption numbers of stablecoins are even more impressive. In 2025, after filtering out artificial or automated activity, stablecoins processed approximately USD 9 trillion in value, an 87 percent increase from the previous year. This already exceeds half of Visa’s payment volume and is more than five times that of PayPal. In terms of transaction volume, stablecoins are now the largest digital payment system in the world. 

Their appeal is straightforward: instant global settlement, around-the-clock availability, programmability, and near-zero marginal cost. These characteristics have driven adoption among major fintech firms. In 2025, for example:

• Stripe reintroduced stablecoin payouts to improve settlement reliability in regions with weak banking infrastructure.
• PayPal expanded its PYUSD stablecoin from consumer transfers to merchant settlement and remittances, significantly reducing operational costs.

Beyond their relevance for payments, stablecoins also carry macroeconomic weight. Tether and Circle now collectively hold roughly USD 180 billion in U.S. Treasury bills, accounting for about 3 percent of the entire T-bill market. Only mid-sized sovereigns hold comparable amounts.

Chart: Stablecoin backing by type of assets

_{^{Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/departmental-papers/issues/2025/12/02/understanding-stablecoins-570602}} 

And speaking of Circle, the company achieved another milestone for the sector with their IPO in June 2025. On the first day of public trading, Circle’s stock surged from its USD 31 IPO price to close near USD 83. The strong debut sparked comparisons to a “ChatGPT moment” for stablecoins. The strong listing has encouraged other crypto-native companies to consider going public in 2026. Rumored candidates include Kraken, Consensys, Chainalysis, FalconX and BitGo.

4. Tokenization: from concept to capital markets infrastructure

Tokenization became one of the standout themes of 2025, rivaled only by artificial intelligence and stablecoins. The total value of tokenized assets increased from USD 15 billion at the start of the year to over USD 35 billion today.

Growth was concentrated in two areas: private credit, which doubled from USD 9.85 billion to USD 18.58 billion and tokenized U.S. Treasuries, which rose from USD 3.91 billion to USD 8.68 billion.

This development is increasingly supported by the biggest juggernauts of traditional finance. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has stated that “the next generation of markets will be the tokenization of securities”, and BlackRock is actively issuing on-chain money market funds along with other major financial institutions.

As public blockchains continue to prove their reliability and efficiency, more traditional financial firms are using them for settlement, liquidity, custody and product issuance.

In 2026, this trend is likely to accelerate. Stablecoins will serve as the on-chain cash leg, and decentralized markets will increasingly provide liquidity for a broadening universe of tokenized assets.

_{^{Source: https://coinshares.com/en/d/insights/research-data/2026-outlook}} 

5. Regulatory clarity: yes, but fragmented

One major driver of institutional interest in 2025 was the growing regulatory involvement. Yet, the year also made clear that global convergence is not on the horizon. Instead, regions have continued to implement their own regulatory models.

The United States made progress by advancing stablecoin legislation and improving cross-agency coordination, though overlapping federal and state oversight remains a structural constraint. Europe completed the rollout of MiCA, establishing the world’s most comprehensive crypto framework, even as national implementation varies. Meanwhile, Asia and the Middle East further developed innovation-friendly but tightly supervised regimes, with a particular focus on stablecoins, tokenized assets, and exchange licensing. Although regulatory requirements created higher compliance demands for service providers, they also contributed to greater institutional confidence.

Looking ahead to 2026, we can expect to see further evolution in regulatory frameworks. Stablecoin regulation will continue to converge around full-reserve backing, redemption rights, and enhanced transparency. DeFi oversight will expand through “same risk, same rule” principles. At the same time, exchange regulation and proof-of-reserves will become standard expectations. Cross-border tax reporting will tighten as jurisdictions prepare for the OECD’s CARF framework ahead of the 2027 data exchange.

A key shift towards a more nuanced regulatory approach occurred in November when the Basel Committee announced a review of its prudential rules for banks with crypto exposures. The original framework imposed highly restrictive capital requirements on most crypto assets and faced resistance from major jurisdictions. Combined with the rapid growth of stablecoins, this prompted the Committee to reassess its approach. For Switzerland, which has been applying these requirements, an overall revision would lower barriers for banks holding digital assets and make services such as Bitcoin-backed lending less cost-intensive.

6. Prediction markets: here to stay

Another hot topic of 2025 was the rise of prediction markets, which are closely related to crypto, given they rely on public blockchains and stablecoins for trading and settlement. They surged during the 2024 U.S. election cycle, clearing more than USD 800 million in weekly volume. While many expected the activity to decline sharply after elections, this did not materialize.

In November 2025, prediction markets processed USD 13 billion in volume – more than triple the peak month of the 2024 election. Open interest has remained well above pre-election levels, indicating that prediction markets have reached lasting relevance rather than experiencing a short-lived boom.

Chart: Volume development of the largest prediction markets

_{^{Source: https://x.com/DanJablonski/status/1998271363526844883?s=20}}

Polymarket, the leading platform, now operates as a well-calibrated forecasting system. When the market assigns an 80 percent probability to an outcome, the event typically does occur, indicating a high degree of informational efficiency.

Interestingly, this emerging industry is also moving closer to regulatory legitimacy. Polymarket recently took an important step in this respect, receiving approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate as a regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM). This milestone was followed by an even stronger signal when Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, made a strategic investment of up to USD 2 billion in Polymarket in October – a clear vote of confidence from one of the most established institutions in global finance.

Prediction markets are likely to play a growing role in the information economy in 2026. Their main challenges remain market integrity and the risk of insider trading. At the same time, efforts to strengthen governance and enhance market surveillance are expected to accelerate as participation continues to expand.

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Editorial deadline: 16 October 2025

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