Why Bitcoin is not comparable with Apple & Co.

Bitcoin is frequently lumped together with high-risk assets like tech stocks, particularly the so-called Magnificent 7 (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla). At first glance, this seems warranted: Bitcoin is a new digital technology aimed at revolutionising money and finance, and its price history has certainly mirrored the volatility of fast-growth equities.

A quantitative look beyond the narrative

But this comparison is intellectually lazy. It overlooks the fact that Bitcoin is not equity in a company; it is a decentralised monetary asset with no management, no revenue stream and no corporate exposure. Unlike tech companies whose performance is tied to earnings, innovation cycles or executive execution, Bitcoin operates according to a deterministic and fixed monetary policy – a global, public, open-source protocol with absolute scarcity.

Thus, while Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset in certain environments, its foundational properties and long-term behaviour deserve deeper scrutiny. To test the claim that Bitcoin is "just another tech stock", we turn to quantitative finance tools that measure risk, correlation and return characteristics.

Putting the narrative to the test

We examine Bitcoin and the individual Mag7 stocks across four rigorous financial metrics:

Sortino ratio: downside risk-adjusted return
Correlation: linear co-movement with other assets
R²: exposure to systemic (market) risk
Batting average: frequency and magnitude of benchmark outperformance

This multi-dimensional analysis offers a far more nuanced view than price comparisons alone.

Sortino ratio: risk-adjusted returns

The Sortino ratio penalises only downside deviation, capturing how well an asset compensates investors for negative volatility. It's especially relevant for assets with large, positive return skew – such as Bitcoin.

Asset	Sortino ratio*
Bitcoin	~1.6
Nvidia	~1.8
Microsoft	~1.5
Alphabet	~1.4
Meta	~1.4
Amazon	~1.3
Apple	~1.5
Tesla	~1.1

_{*3Y, monthly returns | Source: Bloomberg & Tradingview}

Given Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, its Sortino ratio is in line with high-growth tech leaders – especially when adjusting for its massive upside in key periods (e.g. Q4 2020, Q1 2021, Q4 2023). This implies that Bitcoin is not recklessly volatile but instead offers asymmetric returns on par with top-performing equities.

Correlation: moving with the market

We next assess 100-day rolling correlations between Bitcoin and each Mag7 component, using daily returns. Correlation measures the degree to which Bitcoin moves in tandem with tech peers.

Bitcoin versus ...	Trailing 100D correlation
Nvidia	~0.83
Microsoft	~0.93
Alphabet	~0.61
Meta	~0.70
Amazon	~0.67
Apple	~0.89
Tesla	~0.90

_{Source: Bloomberg & Tradingview}

As we can see, Bitcoin’s correlations are quite similar to those within the Mag7 cohort itself. However, the correlation among the tech stocks themselves is often even higher (e.g. Microsoft–Apple: ~0.94; Nvidia–Tesla: ~0.91). This hints at Bitcoin’s potential diversification value, offering exposure to growth dynamics without without behaving like a typical equity market beta play.

R²: how tied is Bitcoin to the broader market?

R² quantifies how much of an asset’s return variability is explained by a benchmark (e.g. NASDAQ 100). A lower R² means more idiosyncratic behaviour.

Asset	R² vs. NASDAQ *
Bitcoin	~0.24
Nvidia	~0.86
Microsoft	~0.82
Alphabet	~0.79
Meta	~0.76
Amazon	~0.82
Apple	~0.84
Tesla	~0.74

_{*3Y, monthly returns | Source: Bloomberg & Tradingview}

This is a decisive point of divergence. Bitcoin’s low R² implies that 76% of its price movements are not explained by equity market behaviour. This stands in stark contrast to the Mag7, where R² values suggest significant exposure to market-wide factors.

This aligns with the macro thesis: Bitcoin trades on liquidity, monetary expectations and adoption cycles, not on business fundamentals. It is more like an option on monetary debasement than a proxy for future cash flows.

Batting average: non-linear payoffs and convex return profiles

Batting average measures the frequency of outperformance, but not its magnitude. For Bitcoin, this distinction matters.

Asset	Batting Average vs. NASDAQ *
Bitcoin	~0.54
Nvidia	~0.65
Microsoft	~0.61
Alphabet	~0.57
Meta	~0.56
Amazon	~0.50
Apple	~0.60
Tesla	~0.55

_{*3Y, monthly returns | Source: Bloomberg & Tradingview}

Despite only outperforming the NASDAQ around 54% of the time, Bitcoin’s outperformance tends to be explosive – a pattern indicative of convexity. For example:

December 2020: Bitcoin surged +59.5% (from ~USD 18,440 to ~USD 29,410), while the NASDAQ gained only +3.95%. This rally followed broader monetary easing, positioning Bitcoin as a macro hedge.
February 2021: Bitcoin advanced +43.8% (from ~USD 34,510 to ~USD 49,640), while the NASDAQ was flat (+0.36%). Despite rising bond yields disrupting tech stocks, BTC soared following Tesla’s USD 1.5B purchase and growing adoption narratives.
October 2023: Bitcoin rose +26.6% (from ~USD 27,860 to ~USD 35,440), while the NASDAQ posted just -1.19%. Optimism around US spot ETF approval and dovish central bank commentary triggered a liquidity-driven BTC breakout.
February 2024: Bitcoin gained +44.1% (from ~USD 42,350 to ~USD 61,000), compared to the NASDAQ’s +5.6% return. The rally was driven by strong ETF inflows and macro reallocation into hard assets amid renewed inflationary concerns.

On the downside, drawdowns are undeniably steep (e.g. −60% in 2022), but they are often followed by rapid recoveries. From November 2022 lows (~USD 16,000), Bitcoin rallied back over 270% by early 2024.

This non-linear payoff profile sets Bitcoin apart from the more linear tech performers. It is not just about frequency of outperformance; it is the magnitude of upside when Bitcoin is actually running that makes it structurally distinct in a portfolio context.

Conclusion: Bitcoin stands apart – and that makes sense

Despite statistical similarities in some metrics (Sortino, correlation), the complete picture confirms that Bitcoin is not just another tech stock. Its low R² and irregular outperformance pattern (batting average) prove that it moves independently, and often violently, based on global macro and monetary themes.

This should not be surprising:

Bitcoin is not a company. It has no income statement, no employees and no leadership team.
It is a fixed-supply digital bearer asset, enforced by cryptographic consensus, with no counterparty risk.
It is designed to be anti-fragile in moderately inflationary or capital control environments, a role tech stocks cannot fulfil.

In a world where monetary debasement, sovereign default risk and geopolitical fragmentation are rising themes, Bitcoin represents a non-sovereign monetary asset class, not a digital equity proxy. The numbers confirm it: Bitcoin is not just a tech stock. It is a new phenomenon among financial assets.

Author: Pascal Hügli

Pascal Hügli, Crypto Investment Manager at Maerki Baumann and founder of Insight DeFi, produces high-quality content on Bitcoin and crypto and contributes to Maerki Baumann's development in the area of blockchain and cryptocurrencies. As a lecturer in digital finance and crypto assets at the HWZ University of Applied Sciences in Business Administration Zurich, he has in-depth expertise in this field, which he is now also applying to the establishment of our brand "ARCHIP by Maerki Baumann".

Important legal information

_{This publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation. It is not a sales prospectus and does not constitute a request or an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell investment instruments or investment services, or to engage in any other transaction. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. Investors are therefore advised to obtain independent legal or tax advice concerning the suitability of such investments, since their tax treatment depends on the personal circumstances of the investor in question and is subject to change at any time. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG holds a Swiss banking license issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). Please note that Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. The above information should not be considered as such. It is only an initial assessment without any claim to completeness or correctness. For a final and legally binding assessment, please contact a tax expert.}

Editorial deadline: 11 July 2025

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